As the American trucking industry moves through a period of slow but steady recovery, the national demand for commercial truck and bus tires is reshaping itself in important ways. At Total Effort Tire, we continuously monitor market movements to ensure our customers and partners stay ahead of industry trends. Based on the latest industry data and developments, here is our 2025 outlook and forward-looking analysis for the U.S. truck tire market.

1. Market Overview: Replacement Strong, OE Weak

The U.S. truck tire sector is now clearly split into two different cycles:

Replacement Market — Strong and Growing

According to industry projections, U.S. replacement truck/bus tire shipments are expected to reach 22.6 million units in 2024, marking one of the strongest post-pandemic recoveries. The core driver behind this rise is simple:

• Truck fleets continue to extend vehicle service life

• Freight volume is stabilizing

• More carriers are prioritizing cost-effective tire solutions

Original Equipment (OE) Market — Softening

In contrast, OE truck tire demand has been trending downward due to:

• Lower heavy-duty truck production forecasts

• Fleet hesitation ahead of upcoming emission regulations

• Capital expenditure pressure across the trucking industry

This divide confirms that the replacement market will remain the primary growth engine through 2025.

2. Import Dynamics: Vietnam, Thailand, Mexico Lead Supply

The U.S. relies heavily on imported TBR (Truck & Bus Radial) tires. Over the past twelve months, total import entries have risen by double-digit percentages.

The leading sources now include:

• Vietnam

• Thailand

• Mexico

• China (limited by duties but still active in niche segments)

As supply chains normalize and Asian factories expand capacity, the U.S. market will continue to receive a stable flow of competitive, high-quality TBR products—creating more choices and better pricing for fleets.

3. Cost Structure & Industry Price Pressure

In 2024, key raw materials saw mixed movements:

• Natural rubber surged by more than 20%

• Carbon black and synthetic rubber showed mild downward corrections

• Global freight rates remained relatively stable

Even with fluctuating input costs, one fact remains unchanged:
Competition in the U.S. market keeps retail and wholesale prices under pressure.
While manufacturers periodically announce price increases, aggressive competition among distributors has kept the price environment stable for fleets.

4. Market Forecast: 2025–2027

Looking forward, the U.S. commercial tire market is expected to enter a phase of steady and healthy growth:

2025

• Replacement demand: +1% to +2%

• OE demand: Flat to slightly negative

• Pricing: Stable to mildly competitive

2026–2027

• Gradual recovery in freight activity

• Increased truck replacement ahead of new emission standards

• Moderate annual growth of 2%–3% in replacement tire demand

For distributors and fleets, this means:
Strong demand in mainstream sizes (295/75R22.5, 11R22.5) and a stable environment for long-term tire procurement.

5. What This Means for Our Customers

At Total Effort Tire, we believe the current environment presents notable opportunities:

✔ Local Inventory Matters More Than Ever

With market competition high and pricing sensitive, fleets prefer suppliers who can provide immediate delivery of essential TBR sizes.

✔ Quality + Value Is the Winning Formula

Affordable, durable, and fuel-efficient tires—especially from top Asian manufacturers—continue to gain the confidence of large fleets.

✔ Reliability & Service Drive Long-Term Partnerships

Fast delivery, correct specifications, and warehouse stability now weigh more heavily in fleet decisions than brand labels alone.

Conclusion

The U.S. truck tire market in 2025 will not be a “boom year,” but it will be a strong and stable year, especially for the replacement segment. Fleets are optimizing operations, extending vehicle usage, and focusing on value—creating a favorable environment for professional distributors with consistent stock and dependable service.

At Total Effort Tire, we are committed to supporting our customers with the right products, competitive pricing, and reliable delivery—every single day.